Early Prediction of Disease Progression in Patients with Severe COVID-19 Using C-Reactive Protein to Albumin Ratio.

BACKGROUND: Early identification of patients with severe coronavirus disease (COVID-19) at an increased risk of progression may promote more individualized treatment schemes and optimize the use of medical resources. This study is aimed at investigating the utility of the C-reactive protein to albumin (CRP/Alb) ratio for early risk stratification of patients. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed 557 patients with COVID-19 with confirmed outcomes (discharged or deceased) admitted to the West Court of Union Hospital, Wuhan, China, between January 29, 2020 and April 8, 2020. Patients with severe COVID-19 (n = 465) were divided into stable (n = 409) and progressive (n = 56) groups according to whether they progressed to critical illness or death during hospitalization. To predict disease progression, the CRP/Alb ratio was evaluated on admission. RESULTS: The levels of new biomarkers, including neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio, CRP/Alb ratio, and systemic immune-inflammation index, were higher in patients with progressive disease than in those with stable disease. Correlation analysis showed that the CRP/Alb ratio had the strongest positive correlation with the sequential organ failure assessment score and length of hospital stay in survivors. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that percutaneous oxygen saturation (SpO2), D-dimer levels, and the CRP/Alb ratio were risk factors for disease progression. To predict clinical progression, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of Alb, CRP, CRP/Alb ratio, SpO2, and D-dimer were 0.769, 0.838, 0.866, 0.107, and 0.748, respectively. Moreover, patients with a high CRP/Alb ratio (≥1.843) had a markedly higher rate of clinical deterioration (log - rank p < 0.001). A higher CRP/Alb ratio (≥1.843) was also closely associated with higher rates of hospital mortality, ICU admission, invasive mechanical ventilation, and a longer hospital stay. CONCLUSION: The CRP/Alb ratio can predict the risk of progression to critical disease or death early, providing a promising prognostic biomarker for risk stratification and clinical management of patients with severe COVID-19.

Lipid metabolism changes in patients with severe COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: We investigated the dynamic changes in lipid profiles and their correlations with disease severity and clinical outcome in patients with severe COVID-19. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed 519 severe COVID-19 patients with confirmed outcomes (discharged or deceased), admitted to the West Court of Union Hospital in Wuhan, China, between 29 January and 8 April 2020. RESULTS: Altogether, 424 severe COVID-19 patients, including 34 non-survivors and 390 survivors, were included in the final analyses. During hospitalization, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), total cholesterol (TC), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and apolipoprotein A-I (apoA-I) showed an increasing trend in survivors, but showed a downward trend in non-survivors. The serum concentrations of HDL-C and apoA-I were inversely correlated with C-reactive protein (CRP), length of hospital stay of survivors, and disease severity scores. For in-hospital deaths, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) of the ratios of CRP/HDL-C and CRP/apoA-I at admission were 0.84 and 0.83, respectively. Moreover, patients with high ratios of CRP/HDL-C (＞77.39) or CRP/apoA-I (＞72.37) had higher mortality rates during hospitalization (log-rank p < 0.001). Logistic regression analysis demonstrated that hypertension, lactate dehydrogenase, SOFA score, and High CRP/HDL-C ratio were independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. CONCLUSIONS: During severe COVID-19, HDL-C and apoA-I concentrations are dramatically decreased in non-survivors. Moreover, High CRP/HDL-C ratio is significantly associated with an increase in mortality and a poor prognosis.

Thyroid dysfunction may be associated with poor outcomes in patients with COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has resulted in considerable morbidity and mortality worldwide. Thyroid hormones play a key role in modulating metabolism and the immune system. However, the prevalence of thyroid dysfunction (TD) and its association with the prognosis of COVID-19 have not yet been elucidated. In this study, we seek to address this gap and understand the link between TD and COVID-19. METHODS: Herein, we enrolled patients who were hospitalized with COVID-19 and had normal or abnormal thyroid function test results at the West Court of Union Hospital in Wuhan, China, between 29 January and February 26, 2020. We carried out follow up examinations until April 26, 2020. Data on clinical features, treatment strategies, and prognosis were collected and analyzed. TD was defined as an abnormal thyroid function test result, including overt thyrotoxicosis, overt hypothyroidism, subclinical hypothyroidism, subclinical hyperthyroidism, and euthyroid sick syndrome. RESULTS: A total of 25 and 46 COVID-19 patients with and without TD, respectively, were included in the study. COVID-19 patients with TD had significantly higher neutrophil counts and higher levels of C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, lactate dehydrogenase, serum creatine kinase, aspartate transaminase, and high-sensitive troponin I and a longer activated partial thromboplastin time but lower lymphocyte, platelet, and eosinophil counts. A longitudinal analysis of serum biomarkers showed that patients with TD presented persistently high levels of biomarkers for inflammatory response and cardiac injury. COVID-19 patients with TD were more likely to develop a critical subtype of the disease. Patients with TD had a significantly higher fatality rate than did those without TD during hospitalization (20% vs 0%, P = 0.002). Patients with TD were more likely to stay in the hospital for more than 28 days than were those without TD (80% vs 56.52%, P = 0.048). CONCLUSIONS: Our preliminary findings suggest that TD is associated with poor outcomes in patients with COVID-19.

A predictive model for the severity of COVID-19 in elderly patients.

Elderly patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are more likely to develop severe or critical pneumonia, with a high fatality rate. To date, there is no model to predict the severity of COVID-19 in elderly patients. In this study, patients who maintained a non-severe condition and patients who progressed to severe or critical COVID-19 during hospitalization were assigned to the non-severe and severe groups, respectively. Based on the admission data of these two groups in the training cohort, albumin (odds ratio [OR] = 0.871, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.809 - 0.937, P < 0.001), d-dimer (OR = 1.289, 95% CI: 1.042 - 1.594, P = 0.019) and onset to hospitalization time (OR = 0.935, 95% CI: 0.895 - 0.977, P = 0.003) were identified as significant predictors for the severity of COVID-19 in elderly patients. By combining these predictors, an effective risk nomogram was established for accurate individualized assessment of the severity of COVID-19 in elderly patients. The concordance index of the nomogram was 0.800 in the training cohort and 0.774 in the validation cohort. The calibration curve demonstrated excellent consistency between the prediction of our nomogram and the observed curve. Decision curve analysis further showed that our nomogram conferred significantly high clinical net benefit. Collectively, our nomogram will facilitate early appropriate supportive care and better use of medical resources and finally reduce the poor outcomes of elderly COVID-19 patients.

Early predictors for mechanical ventilation in COVID-19 patients.

OBJECTIVE: To identify potential predictors for invasive and non-invasive mechanical ventilation in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients. METHODS: This study retrospectively analyzes data of 516 patients with confirmed COVID-19, who were categorized into three groups based on which mechanical ventilation method was used during the hospitalization period. RESULTS: Among 516 confirmed cases with COVID-19, 446 patients did not receive mechanical ventilation, 38 patients received invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) and 32 received non-invasive mechanical ventilation (NIMV). The median age of the included patients was 61 years old (interquartile range, 52-69). A total of 432 patients had one or more coexisting illnesses. The main clinical symptoms included fever (79.46%), dry cough (66.47%) and shortness of breath (46.90%). IMV and NIMV patients included more men, more coexisting illnesses and received more medication. Patients in the IMV group and NIMV had higher leukocyte and neutrophil count, lower lymphocyte count, higher aspartate aminotransferase (AST), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT) and D-dimer levels and lower albumin (ALB) level. The univariate and multiple logistic regression analysis showed that the use of glucocorticoid, increased neutrophil count and LDH had a predictive role as indicators for IMV, and the use of glucocorticoid, increased neutrophil count and PCT had a predictive role as indicators for NIMV. The area under the curve (AUC) of use of glucocorticoid, increased neutrophil count and LDH was 0.885 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.838-0.933, p < 0.0001), which provided the specificity and sensitivity 77.7% and 90.9%, respectively. AUC of the use of glucocorticoid, increased neutrophil count and PCT for NIMV was 0.888 (95% CI 0.825-0.952, p < 0.0001), which provided the specificity and sensitivity 70.3% and 96.4%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Glucocorticoid, increased neutrophil and LDH were predictive indicators for IMV, whereas glucocorticoid, increased neutrophil and PCT were predictive indicators for NIMV. In addition, the above-mentioned mediators had the most predictive meaning for mechanical ventilation when combined.The reviews of this paper are available via the supplemental material section.

Association of diabetes mellitus with disease severity and prognosis in COVID-19: A retrospective cohort study.

AIMS: The 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) emerged in Wuhan, China, and was characterized as a pandemic by the World Health Organization. Diabetes is an established risk associated with poor clinical outcomes, but the association of diabetes with COVID-19 has not been reported yet. METHODS: In this cohort study, we retrospectively reviewed 258 consecutive hospitalized COVID-19 patients with or without diabetes at the West Court of Union Hospital in Wuhan, China, recruited from January 29 to February 12, 2020. The clinical features, treatment strategies and prognosis data were collected and analyzed. Prognosis was followed up until March 12, 2020. RESULTS: Of the 258 hospitalized patients (63 with diabetes) with COVID-19, the median age was 64 years (range 23-91), and 138 (53.5%) were male. Common symptoms included fever (82.2%), dry cough (67.1%), polypnea (48.1%), and fatigue (38%). Patients with diabetes had significantly higher leucocyte and neutrophil counts, and higher levels of fasting blood glucose, serum creatinine, urea nitrogen and creatine kinase isoenzyme MB at admission compared with those without diabetes. COVID-19 patients with diabetes were more likely to develop severe or critical disease conditions with more complications, and had higher incidence rates of antibiotic therapy, non-invasive and invasive mechanical ventilation, and death (11.1% vs. 4.1%). Cox proportional hazard model showed that diabetes (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 3.64; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.09, 12.21) and fasting blood glucose (aHR = 1.19; 95% CI: 1.08, 1.31) were associated with the fatality due to COVID-19, adjusting for potential confounders. CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes mellitus is associated with increased disease severity and a higher risk of mortality in patients with COVID-19.